“Unheated price rise” indicates increased demand for Bitcoin’s asset value and why the price is likely to soar further

　We will explain in detail, in a way that is easy for even beginners to understand, the specific reasons why Bitcoin’s (BTC) current rise is not overheated and can be considered a clear sign of a healthy bull market, and if that is correct, what the future holds.

Background and Market Situation

　As of May 21, 2025, the price of Bitcoin is hovering around $100,000, and the price increase since the beginning of the year has been influenced by increased demand from institutional investors and ETFs. There was a temporary cooling off period in April, but an upward trend has been seen again since May.

Reasons for not overheating

　Below, we take a closer look at the metrics and analysis that explain why the current rally may not be considered overheated.

technical indicators

・Moving Averages: On the 4-hourly and daily charts, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are trending up, supporting the bullish trend.

・RSI (Relative Strength Index): According to a post on X, the RSI was in the overheated zone above 80 at one point in early May, but as of May 21, it is estimated to be around 70. This indicates that it is approaching overbought territory, but has not yet reached extreme overheating (RSI above 80).

・MACD and other indicators: Some X posts have noted a bullish cross on the MACD while also pointing to a possible short-term cooling, but the overall trend remains bullish.

On-chain analysis

・MVRV Z-Score: This indicator measures the degree of market overheating by comparing the standard deviation of market value and realized value. Historical data suggests that an MVRV Z-Score of 7 or higher indicates a market top. Considering that Bitcoin’s price was around $73,000 in 2024 and the MVRV Z-Score was 3.39, even if the price is over $100,000 on May 21, 2025, the MVRV Z-Score is still estimated to be around 5, showing limited signs of overheating.

・Exchange Balances: Bitcoin balances on exchanges are trending downwards, reflecting less selling pressure and bullish sentiment.

market sentiment

・Fear & Greed Index: Reported at 71 (greed) as of May 20th, and a similar reading confirmed by a post on X. This indicates market optimism, but has not reached extreme greed (90+), and the risk of overheating is seen as low.

・Google Search Trends: Subdued search trends even as prices exceed $100,000 suggest the market is still in its early stages and supports the possibility that it may not be overheated.

Institutional investor movements

　Continued Bitcoin accumulation by institutional investors and inflows into ETFs is supporting demand and is seen as a sign of a healthy bull market. A post on X reported BlackRock’s $130 million purchase and $320 million in ETF inflows.

historical pattern

　Past bull markets have shown a pattern of corrections followed by further price increases, and a cooling off period in April 2024 followed by a resurgence in prices in May would be consistent with previous cycles and suggest the market is healthy.

Controversy and differing opinions

　Some analysts have warned that market sentiment is overheated — for example, our May 14 article noted that excessive bull optimism increases the risk of a temporary downturn — but the longer-term outlook is viewed as structurally bullish, with institutional accumulation expected to continue.

Future predictions

　If the current trend continues, the price of Bitcoin is likely to rise further. Here are some specific predictions:

・Short-term forecast: Changelly Bitcoin Price Prediction predicts that it could reach $115,592.91 by May 22.

・Mid-term forecast: Marshall Beard (CEO of Gemini Exchange) and Tom Lee (Fundstrat Global Advisors) predict it will reach $150,000 by the end of 2025.

・Long-term projections: Cathie Wood predicts it could reach $1 million within five years, but that’s not a goal for 2025.

　However, risks exist: regulatory changes and macroeconomic factors (e.g. interest rate hikes or geopolitical tensions) could put downward pressure on prices.

Summary of detailed indicators

　The table below shows the main indicators and their interpretation: